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Calibration accuracy compares how often predictions came true with the probability we gave them
(e.g. 60% predicted, 60% came true = 100%). Each prediction is checked at the end of its own time window.
Confidence range
Avg predicted
Came true
Calibration accuracy
Predictions
All-checkpoints hit rate
Accuracy diagnostics
"Already moved" = the stock itself had already moved in the predicted direction over the window
when the call was made. "Not yet moved" = its group was moving but it hadn't yet. "Market rose" is how often the
price simply went up, to compare against.